The effects of climate change and variation in New Zealand: An assessment using the CLIMPACTS system

Along with a need to better understand the climate and biophysical systems of New Zealand, the need to develop an improved capacity for evaluating possible changes in climate and their effects on the New Zealand environment has been recognised. Since the middle of 1993 the CLIMPACTS programme, has been focused on the development of such a capacity, in the first instance for the agricultural sector. the goals of this present assessment are: 1. To present current knowledge on likely scenarios of climate change and associated uncertainties in New Zealand; 2. To present current knowledge, based on quantitative analyses using a consistent set of scenarios, on the likely effects of climate change on a range of agricultural and horticultural crops of economic importance; 3. To demonstrate, by way of this report and the associated technical report, the capacity that has been developed for ongoing assessments of this kind in New Zealand. This report has been prepared for both the science and policy communities in New Zealand. There are two main components: 1. The detailed findings of the assessment, presented in a series of chapters; 2. An annex, which contains technical details on models used in the assessment

FIJICLIM description and users guide

The FIJICLIM prototype is based on PACCLIM which was developed by the International Global Change Institute (IGCI) as part of the Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme (PICCAP) executed by the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). Both FIJICLIM and PACCLIM build directly on a comparable model development for New Zealand, known as the CLIMPACTS system (Kenny et al., 1995, 1999; Warrick et al., 1996, 1999). The development of CLIMPACTS has been funded by the Foundation for Research Science and Technology since 1993. Its core components, which include a graphic user interface (GUI), a customised geographic information system (GIS), and data compression routines, have provided the basis for the development of FIJICLIM. The development of FIJICLIM is complementary to similar developments that have evolved from CLIMPACTS, for Bangladesh (BDCLIM), Australia (OZCLIM), and for training in climate change V&A assessment (VANDACLIM)

Hotspots: Modelling capacity for vector-borne disease risk analysis in New Zealand: A case study of Ochlerotatus camptorhynchus incursions in New Zealand

This Hotspots case study of Oc. camptorhynchus in New Zealand forms part of the wider aims and objectives of the Hotspots project. The overall aims of the case study were: 1. To evaluate the performance of the Hotspots model as a risk analysis tool for Oc. camptorhynchus; 2. To use and learn from the experience of the various incursions of Oc. camptorhynchus in order to critically assess and improve the model; 3. To gain experience in using the model for risk analysis for Oc. camptorhynchus in particular, and in so doing, also develop experience applicable to risk analysis for other vectors of concern (Table 1); and, 4. To develop an experience and knowledge base as well as guidelines for future use of the model in its various applications related to biosecurity, surveillance and risk assessment and management

Hotspots: Exotic mosquito risk profiles for New Zealand

This document reports the main findings of the first systematic, spatial analyses of risks to New Zealand associated with exotic mosquitoes of current public health concern

Evolution since z = 0.5 of the Morphology-Density relation for Clusters of Galaxies

Using traditional morphological classifications of galaxies in 10 intermediate-redshift (z~0.5) clusters observed with WFPC-2 on the Hubble Space Telescope, we derive relations between morphology and local galaxy density similar to that found by Dressler for low-redshift clusters. Taken collectively, the `morphology-density' relationship, M-D, for these more distant, presumably younger clusters is qualitatively similar to that found for the local sample, but a detailed comparison shows two substantial differences: (1) For the clusters in our sample, the M-D relation is strong in centrally concentrated ``regular'' clusters, those with a strong correlation of radius and surface density, but nearly absent for clusters that are less concentrated and irregular, in contrast to the situation for low redshift clusters where a strong relation has been found for both. (2) In every cluster the fraction of elliptical galaxies is as large or larger than in low-redshift clusters, but the S0 fraction is 2-3 times smaller, with a proportional increase of the spiral fraction. Straightforward, though probably not unique, interpretations of these observations are (1) morphological segregation proceeds hierarchically, affecting richer, denser groups of galaxies earlier, and (2) the formation of elliptical galaxies predates the formation of rich clusters, and occurs instead in the loose-group phase or even earlier, but S0's are generated in large numbers only after cluster virialization.Comment: 35 pages, 19 figures, uses psfig. Accepted for publication in Ap

The CLIMPACTS synthesis report: An assessment of the effects of climate change and variation in New Zealand using the CLIMPACTS system

In the late 1980s, New Zealand undertook the first national assessment of climate change and its possible impacts on the country.The landmark report, reflecting the judgement of scores of national experts, called for greater efforts in building the national research capacity in order to better quantify the range of impacts that could occur in New Zealand from climate change and variability. In response, the collaborative CLIMPACTS Programme was established to provide this capacity. Ten years on from the first national assessment, the present synthesis offers some results from, as well as a demonstration of, the capacity developed by the CLIMPACTS Programme. The purpose of the present document is to provide a summary report from the CLIMPACTS Programme on climate change and its effects on New Zealand.The chapters and their contents are not comprehensive. Rather, they are focused on a specific set of questions, which conform to the particular expertise of the CLIMPACTS Programme members and which employ a limited set of the wide range of tools available within the CLIMPACTS Model. Other important areas such as forests, indigenous ecosystems and pests and diseases are not yet covered